The Lightning: Ford's Electric Pickup is Built For America

Ford

Exploding Demand with a Rivian Kicker

Ford began taking reservations for the Lighting —its fully electric pickup truck, the latest member of its vaunted F-Series — when it was unveiled in May. By early November, over 160,000 fully refundable $100 reservations had been placed. In mid-December, Ford quit taking reservations: in a few short weeks they had racked up another 40,000 reservations bringing the sum total to 200,000 in the six months.

By way of context, just over 200,000 electric vehicles (EVs) were sold in the US in 2020 in total. Poised to double this year, through the first ten months of 2021, total EV sales across all models were just under 380,000. Despite this increasingly rapid adoption, to date EVs remain a very slender and specified market: 250,000 of vehicles sold are Teslas, and roughly a third of the total were sold in California.

Source: https://insideevs.com/news/488682/us-states-highest-plugin-sales-per-capita/

Demand for the Lightning could increase EV sales in the US by 50% single handedly, if Ford could build them fast enough. But its more than that. The Lightning could actually change the way most of America views EVs.

Americans love pickup trucks. 2021 marks the seventh consecutive year that pickups are poised to capture the top three spots in vehicles sold: Ford F-Series, Chevy Silverado and the Dodge Ram. The Chevy and Dodge have dodged and weaved about in the rankings over the years, but for over three decades the F-Series have been the highest selling US vehicle, approaching one million units annually.

“Built Ford Tough” is more than a slogan: it captures the spirit of any and all of the vehicle’s die-hard fans. And they encompass a wide swath of our socio-economic spectrum. Truly a slice of America, one is as apt to see an F-Series truck in parking lots of wealthy Southern California malls, as at the Walmart in rural Oklahoma.

“While some people complain that the government is trying to shove electric vehicles down their throat, Ford had to stop taking reservations for the F-150 Lightning because it couldn’t keep up with demand.”

Until now, Americans have been as polarized on EVs as any of the partisan issues plaguing the nation. Expressed by industry expert John McElroy, “While some people complain that the government is trying to shove electric vehicles down their throat, Ford had to stop taking reservations for the F-150 Lightning because it couldn’t keep up with demand,” McElroy said. “It’s crazy. Half the public thinks EVs are stupid, and the other half can’t get one soon enough.”

But in a single stroke, Ford has managed to bridge that divide that so eludes politicians and policy makers. While Ford indicates that reservations show a different market than their typical F-Series customer, the numbers reflect an indisputable breadth of interest beyond legacy EVs: 200,000 reservations represent an astonishing 80% of all Teslas sold year-to-date.

Pickups Rule the Road

In precisely those states where EVs are virtually unknown.

With a single strike, Ford has, if not yet made relevant, certainly peaked the interest of drivers in those states for which until now EVs have been virtually nonexistent. As if pickups have been the anti-EV, those four states with the lowest EV penetration —Wyoming, Montana, Idaho and South Dakota— have the highest percentage of pickups of all passenger vehicles on the road.

And the Lightning’s appeal to these pickup laden populaces has nothing to do with the environment. Ford has built a better mousetrap, a truck that has utility that cannot be approached by its fossil fuel siblings.

The Lightning compromises on none of the muscle of its brethren, but will scorch them off the line. Its a workhorse that accelerates like a Porche: 0-60 mph in 4 seconds. But that is just icing really. The Lighting is a mobile power station. Generators on job sites are soon to be a vestige of the past: whatever needs powering can simply be plugged into the truck. Four outlets in the “frunk” (under the hood, i.e. front trunk), two more in both the cab and the bed, including one 240V, and its smart enough to know not to let itself run out of juice.

“With enough power to rip up to 30 miles of half-inch plywood on a single charge on the extended-range battery, Should Pro Power Onboard deplete the battery charge level to the point the truck cannot reach a charge location, it will shut down automatically to prevent the truck from becoming stranded.”

Working, camping, tailgating. All the power you need, wherever you need it. Even at home.

Weary of increasing frequency and duration of power outages driven by extreme weather, Americans are turning to solar and backup batteries to power their homes. But home batteries are up to ten times more expensive than those for vehicles. For around $10,000, home-owners can purchase a 13.5 kWh Tesla Powerwall, or the equivalent from a number of competitors. But the average American home uses closer to 30 kWh or power on a daily basis. At over 10x the capacity, the Lightning’s battery could power the average home for 3-4 days, without recharging. As American’s begin to see their neighbors lights and televisions on when they sit huddled around candles and flashlights, scoffing at foo-foo technology will quickly turn to envy. Self-reliance is empowering, and very American. As is economic practicality: the Lightning starts at $40,000 yet sports the equivalent of roughly $100,000 worth of Powerwalls.

Ford has crossed the Rubicon with this visionary vehicle: in a single stroke they have revolutionized the way Americans will their vehicles, and in so doing made an electric vehicle relevant to mainstream America.

Projected Annual EV Production Quadruples

Ford had initially planned for production of 20,000 Lightnings annually, reasonably in line with its prior EV launch —the Mustang Mach-E— that has sold roughly 25,000 vehicles through the fist eleven months of 2021.

Quite literally blown away by demand, Ford almost immediately doubled that forecast to 40,000, then again to the 80,000, capacity maximum at the existing Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, MI. Ford CEO Jim Farley recently doubled their annual production goal for the Lighting for the fourth time in six months to 160,000. “We only capacitize about 80,000 so we’ll have double that and that means physically building a bigger building.”

Led by the Lightning, Ford now projects significantly increased demand for its additional EVs as well. In aggregate, Ford recently doubled its total annual EV production target to 600,000 by the end of 2023, up from its 300,000 projection earlier in the year.

Mustang Mach-E

Vehicle of choice for a Space-X Astronaut!!

The biggest challenge facing Ford in hitting these goals? “The supply chain, specifically batteries. Really,” according to Farley, “the constraint to get to 600,000 is to get those batteries.”

When Ford and South Korean battery manufacturer SK Innovation announced their planned joint venture in May, the venture —BlueOval SK— planned to produce 60GWh of battery cells annually my mid-decade, “with potential to expand.” Four months later, the group revealed details of BlueOval City, the 3,600 acre campus spread between locations in Tennessee and Kentucky. In those short four months, the group had more than doubled its plan: BlueOval City would produce 129 GWh (3 separate plants of 43 GWh each) beginning in 2025.

The Lightning currently will be produced with either a 100 or 125 kWh battery; the Mach-E averages just under 100 kWh. Assuming then an average of 100 kWh/vehicle, BlueOval will produce battery capacity for roughly 1.3 million vehicles annually, implying the Ford will be again doubling its projection for annual production.

rivian got there first

Yes, Rivian was first to market with its electric pickup, and as of the end of October had delivered 156 of their R1Ts. Reviews are glowing. Even Ford is impressed, as it owns some 12% of the start-up. As is Amazon, which owns another 20%.

Yes, they will make a fleet of very spiffy delivery vehicles for Amazon. And eye-popping pickups and SUVs for the Hamptons milieu.

It sports and equally eye-popping valuation. Rivian, which went public at the end of October, currently boasts a market cap of over $92 billion. I’m sure Ford is quite pleased with that investment, as it is currently worth some $12 billion, or roughly 15% of Ford’s total market cap of $86 billion. Investors are understandably looking for the next Tesla. Perhaps they should be focusing on where American consumers are voting their interest.

Yes, Lightning: You were absolutely Built For America. Welcome.

Sources:

Ford press releases: https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/09/27/ford-to-lead-americas-shift-to-electric-vehicles.html

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/20/ford-commits-to-manufacturing-batteries.html

Howard, Phoebe Wall, “F-150 Lightning reservations are so huge Ford had to stop taking them,” The Dallas Morning News, 11 December 2021.https://www.dallasnews.com/business/autos/2021/12/11/f-150-lightning-reservations-are-so-huge-ford-had-to-stop-taking-them/

Kane, Mark, “Jim Farley Confirms Doubling of Ford F-150 Lighning Production Target,” InsideEVs, 15 December 2021. https://insideevs.com/news/554741/ford-f150lightning-doubled-production-target/

Kane, Mark, “US: BEV Sales Almost Doubled in January-October 2021,” InsideEVs, 12 December 2021. https://insideevs.com/news/553972/us-bev-sales-october-2021/